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Comparing Asia-Pac Market Outlook: 27-31 Jan vs 03-07 Feb

Writer's picture: Tian Khean NgTian Khean Ng

Data as of 31 January 2025


The forecast for the week ahead for the Asia-Pacific markets that we cover is humdrum i.e. no market-shaking moves are expected. Here’s a look at the forecast trend for each market comparing previous week’s forecast trend with this week. Visually, you will not be able to glean any insights. One way is to look not at the shape of the forecasts, but to compare the value at the X-axis for last week and this week. For example, in the collage of Sensex below, you can see that 03-07 Feb starts at 76500 while 27-31 Jan starts slightly higher above 76500-which means it is forecasted to be slightly down. But read on and the Table after the visuals will give you a more quantitative insight.


Sensex




JKSE


KLSE


SETI


STI


Table 1

In the Table below, S=Support price, R=Resistance, µ=Forecasted Mean.

So, you can see whether the difference between last week and this week’s forecasted Mean is positive or negative (*See column D: C-B%). Positive indicates likelihood of rise while negative indicates likelihood of fall. Of course, the extent of the rise and fall is indicated by the value of C-B%.

It is important to note that µ is a forecast Mean, not the historical Mean. It was derived after we Run the model and conducted Monte Carlo Simulation to get the Probability Distribution Function. Which was then fitted to a Metalog Distribution to derive the S, R, and µ. So, it is a good µ.





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