(Analysis is only good for until 20 January when MAGA Man arrives)
Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) is on a roll. GDP growth for 2024 was 4% instead of the predicted 3%. A General Election could be in weeks or just 1 to 2 months away and is expected to see the ruling People’s Action Party under Lawrence Wong the popular Prime Minster secure an even greater majority of the votes.
The three local banks DBS, OCBC and UOB constitute 40-50% of the STI’s market capitalization depending on the state of the market. Currently with the STI at an all-time their total market capitalization would be nearer to 50%. So the easiest way to make a quick buck is to buy DBS, OCBC and UOB.
Below, are the 1-20 steps ahead autoregressive forecast trend of the STI, DBS, OCBC and UOB. This will be followed by a table summarizing the Support, Resistance and Predictability of STI, DBS, OCBC and UOB.
STI 1-12 steps ahead autoregressive forecast trend

DBS 1-12 steps ahead autoregressive forecast trend

OCBC 1-12 steps ahead autoregressive forecast trend

UOB 1-12 steps ahead autoregressive forecast trend
| Support(S) | Resistance(R) | (R-S/S) % | Predictability |
STI | 3812 | 3910 | 2.57 | 1.14 |
DBS | 44.39 | 45.78 | 3.13 | 0.90 |
OCBC | 17.00 | 17.46 | 2.70 | 0.40 |
UOB | 37.67 | 39.02 | 3.58 | 1.12 |
Analysis
· In a rising market such as now S is cut loss price while R is take profit price.
· Note that UOB is the only bank to show a rising forecast trend.
· The % gap between R and S is not only a trading range, but in a rising marlet is a positive indicator of strength. Thus, UOB has the highest (R-S/S) % of 3.55
· Predictability is measured Durbin-Watson Test. >1 is better than <1. Thus, UOB is the most predictable.
· The analysis here will get less and less predictable and will be event-driven as MAGA Man’s Jan 20 coming approaches.
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