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Data as of: 03 Jan 2025
Don't expect fireworks as investors await with bated breathe the coming of MAGA Man on 20 January. Markets throughout the region will be cautious as the situation is utterly and totally unpredictable. But Hong Kong and Singapore will fare slightly better. Hong Kong may pin its hopes on the increasing need for China to boost domestic consumption to counter MAGA Man's Tariff-raising threats. Singapore is riding on the announcement of above-expectations 2024 GDP growth of 4% instead of the predicted 3%. Plus news and rumors of a General Election coming very soon under its new and popular Prime Minister. On the 60th Anniversary of its birth an an independent State, the government will surely take all steps to keep the economy rosy.
1-20 trading days ahead autoregressive forecast trend
For a visual aid, take a glance at the forecast trend charts of each market below which were produced by our models. This will followed by a commentary on the Support, Resstance and Trading Range of each market.
Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index
Indonesia: JSE Composite
Malaysia: KLSE Composite
India: BSE Sensex
Thailand: SET Index
Singapore: Straits Times Index
Table 1: Support, Resistance and Trading Range (difference in % points between Support and Resistance)
Commentary
1. Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 19,444.27, and Resistance is at 20,439.08.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 5.12%
Analysis: The trading range for the Hang Seng Index is the widest among the markets, indicating higher volatility. This wide range offers greater opportunities for traders looking for significant price movements, but it also comes with higher risks. The market may present breakout or trend-following opportunities if either support or resistance is breached.
2. Indonesia: JSE Composite Index
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 7,022.65, and Resistance is at 7,219.74.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 2.81%
Analysis: The JSE Composite has a moderate trading range, reflecting moderate volatility. The tighter range suggests more controlled market behavior, making it suitable for range-bound strategies like mean reversion. Traders should monitor for any potential breakout that could indicate a shift in market sentiment.
3. Thailand: SET Index
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 1,379.06, and Resistance is at 1,414.24.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 2.55%
Analysis: The SET Index has a relatively narrow trading range, indicating lower volatility. This range reflects a consolidating market, which may be appealing to conservative traders. It is advisable to trade within this range until a clear breakout occurs, signaling a potential trend.
4. India: BSE Sensex
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 79,412.30, and Resistance is at 81,243.49.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 2.31%
Analysis: The Sensex exhibits a tight trading range, suggesting stability in the market. While the market may be trending upward based on prior data, this range favors cautious trading strategies like gradual accumulation or short-term trades within the defined levels.
5. Singapore: Straits Times Index (STI)
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 3,788.57, and Resistance is at 3,873.57.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 2.24%
Analysis: The STI has one of the narrowest trading ranges among the markets, indicating low volatility and high stability. This makes it appealing for low-risk investors. Conservative strategies, such as long-term accumulation or dividend investing, are well-suited for this market.
6. Malaysia: KLSE Composite Index
Support and Resistance Levels: Support is at 1,626.57, and Resistance is at 1,655.94.
Difference in % Points (Trading Range): 1.81%
Analysis: The KLSE has the narrowest trading range, highlighting its low volatility. This suggests a stable market with limited price movement. Range-bound trading strategies or buy-and-hold approaches are appropriate in this market, as the likelihood of significant price swings is minimal.
General Insights Across Markets
Higher Trading Ranges (e.g., Hong Kong): Indicate greater volatility, making these markets more attractive to traders seeking breakout opportunities or speculative gains.
Lower Trading Ranges (e.g., Singapore, Malaysia): Reflect more stability, appealing to conservative investors or those focusing on income generation and long-term holds.
Moderate Ranges (e.g., Indonesia, Thailand): Balance risk and opportunity, making them suitable for a mix of short-term and mid-term trading strategies.
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