Uncertainty the Real Killer of Financial markets

The chart above is taken from https://www.policyuncertainty.com/. They have done great work in creating Indices to measure uncertainty. Basically it uses text analysis keywords in the news media, in Internet searches as well as data economic data and data on policy change to compile the Uncertainty Index. They have also compiled Uncertainty Index for major countries as well as global Index. Read the About Us and Methodology on their website for a better understanding . The chart shows global uncertainty at an all-time high due to Donald Trump's unpredictability and insane negotiation antics because he thinks ruling a country is about "The Art of the Deal" the title of his book. The previous peak on the chart was the Covid-19 crisis beginning in Jan 2020. And we know that lead to a global stock market crash. Whether it will lead to another such crash cannot be predicted at this point of time. But what is undoubtedly the consequence of his policies will cause the ASEAN countries and even Australia, the European countries, Japan, and Korea to rethink the wisdom of their high dependence on the USA-all to the advantage of China.

Here's another chart showing daily measure of uncertainty from 1 Nov 2024 (before US elections) to today.

And here is a chart that I created to compare Uncertainty by country. It has been normalized to Unity for inter-comparison. Note how Singapore faces the greatest uncertainty and how China is least affected.